{"id":3988,"date":"2020-03-19T23:59:22","date_gmt":"2020-03-19T20:59:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/?p=3988"},"modified":"2020-03-20T00:41:33","modified_gmt":"2020-03-19T21:41:33","slug":"ingiltereyi-suru-bagisikligi-planindan-vazgeciren-rapor-imperial-college-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/ingiltereyi-suru-bagisikligi-planindan-vazgeciren-rapor-imperial-college-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ngiltere&#8217;yi &#8221;S\u00fcr\u00fc Ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221; plan\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7iren rapor: Imperial College COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130ngiltere \u00f6l\u00fcm vakalar\u0131n\u0131n artma endi\u015fesiyle &#8221;s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221; stratejisini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Londra Imperial College \u00dcniversitesi&#8217;nin yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imperial.ac.uk\/media\/imperial-college\/medicine\/sph\/ide\/gida-fellowships\/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">raporun<\/a> bu politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finde \u00f6nemli rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ngiltere h\u00fck\u00fcmeti n\u00fcfusun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun enfeksiyona ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k geli\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in sosyal izolasyonu reddeden bir politika izlemi\u015fti d\u00fcne kadar. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yoklu\u011funda ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k yaratabilmenin tek yolu, n\u00fcfusun \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun hastal\u0131\u011fa yakalanmas\u0131 olarak ifade edilen s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sistemini y\u00fczlerce <a href=\"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/ingilterede-245-bilim-insani-suru-bagisikligina-karsi-cikan-bir-bildiri-yayinlandi\/\">akademisyen<\/a> bir mektupla ele\u015ftirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>BBC T\u00fcrk\u00e7e&#8217;nin aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re Londra Imperial College \u00dcniversitesi raporunda ; koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, hastanelerin salg\u0131nla nas\u0131l ba\u015f edece\u011fi, ka\u00e7 ki\u015finin \u00f6lece\u011fine ili\u015fkin modellemeler yapan ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n bulgular\u0131, \u0130ngiltere&#8217;de vir\u00fcse kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nacak \u00f6nlemler konusunda h\u00fck\u00fcmetin strateji de\u011fi\u015ftirmesine neden oldu.<\/p><div id=\"briti-449040741\" class=\"briti-icerik\" style=\"margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/piaryum.com\/services\/\" aria-label=\"piaryum banner\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gemini_Generated_Image_g5yqr1g5yqr1g5yq.jpg\" alt=\"\"  width=\"2064\" height=\"1152\"   \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>\u0130ngiltere h\u00fck\u00fcmeti d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerle halktan gerekli olmad\u0131k\u00e7a kalabal\u0131k yerlere gitmemelerini, m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse evden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flamalar\u0131n\u0131, risk grubundakilerin, 70 ya\u015f \u00fczerindekilerin ve hamile kad\u0131nlar\u0131n evde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar Ba\u015fbakan Boris Johnson ve ekibinin \u00f6nceki \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha farkl\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>H\u00fck\u00fcmetin politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftiren geli\u015fme, bilim insanlar\u0131n\u0131n modellemelerinde, &#8220;D\u00fcmen k\u0131r\u0131n, yoksa bir milyon ki\u015fi \u00f6lecek&#8221; mesaj\u0131n\u0131n verilmesiydi.<\/p>\n<p>Oysa di\u011fer bilim insanlar\u0131 ve D\u00fcnya Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, vir\u00fcs\u00fc durdurmak i\u00e7in geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak riskler konusunda uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7oktan yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ngiltere&#8217;de de uyar\u0131 i\u00e7eren veriler, Londra Imperial College \u00dcniversitesi&#8217;ndeki ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lardan geldi. Onlar \u00c7in&#8217;deki sorunun boyutunun fark\u0131na varm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve tavsiyeleri h\u00fck\u00fcmet politikalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde etkili olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7 strateji geli\u015ftirdiler:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"story-body__unordered-list\">\n<li class=\"story-body__list-item\"><strong>Bask\u0131lama:\u00a0<\/strong>Bula\u015fma zincirini k\u0131rmak, salg\u0131n\u0131 daha ba\u015f\u0131nda durdurmak ve \u00c7in&#8217;in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi vaka say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 asgariye indirmek<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"story-body__unordered-list\">\n<li class=\"story-body__list-item\"><strong>Yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma:<\/strong>\u00a0Vir\u00fcs\u00fc durduramayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 kabul edip yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmak ve b\u00f6ylece bir andaki vaka say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131k sistemini \u00e7\u00f6kertecek boyutlara ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek, bu arada hastanelerde risk gruplar\u0131na a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmesi &#8211; ge\u00e7en hafta \u0130ngiltere&#8217;nin uygulayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 strateji i\u015fte buydu.<\/li>\n<li class=\"story-body__list-item\"><strong>Hi\u00e7bir \u015fey yapmamak:<\/strong>Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn insanlara bula\u015fmas\u0131na seyirci kalmak.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>H\u00fck\u00fcmete bilim alan\u0131nda tavsiyelerde bulunan dan\u0131\u015fman Patrick Vallance, &#8220;yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma&#8221; plan\u0131n\u0131 BBC&#8217;ye \u015f\u00f6yle a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Amac\u0131m\u0131z vakalar\u0131n zirve noktas\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da tutmak ve o \u00e7izgide seyretmesini sa\u011flamak, yoksa t\u00fcm\u00fcyle bast\u0131rmak de\u011fil. Ayr\u0131ca, n\u00fcfusun b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131 hafif \u015fekilde atlataca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 geli\u015ftirilmi\u015f olacak ve b\u00f6ylece bu hastal\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131k olacak.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma i\u015fe yarasayd\u0131 di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde uygulanan sert \u00f6nlemlere gerek kalmayacak ve ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k geli\u015fmi\u015f, bu da koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma stratejisi ki\u015filerin biraz di\u011fer insanlardan uzak durmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor, bask\u0131lama ise hareket s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 ve daha uzun s\u00fcreli izolasyon gibi kat\u0131 \u00f6nlemler i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yap\u0131lan modellemede, \u0130ngiltere&#8217;nin hi\u00e7bir \u015fey yapmamas\u0131 halinde A\u011fustos&#8217;a kadar n\u00fcfusun y\u00fczde 81&#8217;ine vir\u00fcs\u00fcn bula\u015fmas\u0131, 510 bin ki\u015finin de \u00f6lmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n<p>Yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma stratejisi daha iyi olmakla birlikte hala 250 bin ki\u015finin \u00f6lmesi ve hastanelerde yo\u011fun bak\u0131m \u00fcnitelerinin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi s\u00f6z konusu.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130talya&#8217;da ya\u015fananlar ve \u0130ngiltere&#8217;deki ilk vakalar bu y\u00f6nlerin fark edilmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Toplam vakalar\u0131n y\u00fczde 30&#8217;unun hastanede yo\u011fun bak\u0131ma ihtiya\u00e7 duymas\u0131, solunum cihazlar\u0131na ba\u011flanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dclkedeki sa\u011fl\u0131k sisteminin bununla ba\u015f etmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Bu modellemede, yo\u011fun bak\u0131m ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n, en iyimser senaryoda bile mevcudun sekiz kat\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Imperial College \u00dcniverstitesi&#8217;nden Prof. Neil Ferguson&#8217;a g\u00f6re, &#8220;Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan m\u00fcdahalelerle bile yo\u011fun bak\u0131m ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131lanamamas\u0131 riski vard\u0131&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Raporda, &#8220;mevcut ko\u015fullarda bask\u0131lama en uygulanabilir strateji&#8221; deniyor. \u00d6l\u00fcmlerin binlerle ya da on binlerle s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 \u00fcmit ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>H\u00fck\u00fcmet hep bilimsel verilere g\u00f6re planlar\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyordu. Bilimsel veriler ise k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir de\u011fi\u015fime u\u011frad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kaynak: BBC T\u00fcrk\u00e7e<\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"briti-507537795\" class=\"briti-icerikten-sonra_2\" style=\"margin-top: 25px;margin-bottom: 25px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wa.me\/message\/NDZLLIOQT4H3O1\" aria-label=\"bytv reklam banner\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/bytv-reklam-banner.jpg\" alt=\"\"  width=\"2376\" height=\"1008\"   \/><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130ngiltere \u00f6l\u00fcm vakalar\u0131n\u0131n artma endi\u015fesiyle &#8221;s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221; stratejisini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Londra Imperial College \u00dcniversitesi&#8217;nin yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporun bu politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finde \u00f6nemli rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yleniyor. \u0130ngiltere h\u00fck\u00fcmeti n\u00fcfusun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun enfeksiyona ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k geli\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in sosyal izolasyonu reddeden bir politika izlemi\u015fti d\u00fcne kadar. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yoklu\u011funda ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k yaratabilmenin tek yolu, n\u00fcfusun \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun hastal\u0131\u011fa yakalanmas\u0131 olarak ifade edilen s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sistemini y\u00fczlerce akademisyen bir mektupla ele\u015ftirmi\u015fti. BBC T\u00fcrk\u00e7e&#8217;nin aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re Londra Imperial College \u00dcniversitesi raporunda ; koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, hastanelerin salg\u0131nla nas\u0131l ba\u015f edece\u011fi, ka\u00e7 ki\u015finin \u00f6lece\u011fine ili\u015fkin modellemeler yapan ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n bulgular\u0131, \u0130ngiltere&#8217;de vir\u00fcse kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nacak \u00f6nlemler konusunda h\u00fck\u00fcmetin strateji de\u011fi\u015ftirmesine neden oldu. \u0130ngiltere [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[417,809,567,819,558,818],"class_list":["post-3988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","tag-boris-johnson","tag-corona","tag-coronavirus","tag-dso","tag-dunya-saglik-orgutu","tag-londra-imperial-college"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3988","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3988"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3988\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3991"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}