{"id":38620,"date":"2026-04-15T12:45:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T11:45:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/?p=38620"},"modified":"2026-04-15T12:55:36","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T11:55:36","slug":"prof-jonathan-portes-mahmood-gocmen-planinin-tasarrufu-beklentinin-altinda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/prof-jonathan-portes-hukumetin-gocmen-planindan-tasarrufu-beklentinin-cok-altinda\/","title":{"rendered":"Prof. Jonathan Portes; H\u00fck\u00fcmetin g\u00f6\u00e7men plan\u0131ndan tasarrufu beklentinin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u0130\u00e7i\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 <strong>Shabana Mahmood<\/strong> taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6nerilen g\u00f6\u00e7menlik d\u00fczenlemelerinin kamu maliyesine sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 tasarrufun, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 10 milyar sterlinin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk-news\/2026\/apr\/13\/mahmood-migration-reforms-fraction-claimed-savings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Guardian<\/a>\u2019\u0131n haberine g\u00f6re<\/strong>, h\u00fck\u00fcmet verilerine dayanan analiz, tasarrufun yakla\u015f\u0131k <strong>600 milyon sterlin<\/strong> seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Plan kapsam\u0131nda, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin s\u00fcresiz oturum (settled status) hakk\u0131 elde etme s\u00fcresinin <strong>5 y\u0131ldan 10 y\u0131la \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131<\/strong> \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin kamu hizmetleri \u00fczerindeki y\u00fck\u00fc azaltaca\u011f\u0131 savunuluyordu.<\/p>\n<h4>Veriler iddialar\u0131 desteklemiyor<\/h4>\n<p>King\u2019s College London\u2019dan ekonomi profes\u00f6r\u00fc <strong>Jonathan Portes<\/strong> taraf\u0131ndan bilgi edinme ba\u015fvurusu ile elde edilen verilere g\u00f6re, s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin mali etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak. Analiz, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin sosyal yard\u0131mlara eri\u015fiminin geciktirilmesinin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde tasarruf sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor.<\/p><div id=\"briti-1526319505\" class=\"briti-icerik\" style=\"margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/piaryum.com\/services\/\" aria-label=\"piaryum banner\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Gemini_Generated_Image_g5yqr1g5yqr1g5yq.jpg\" alt=\"\"  width=\"2064\" height=\"1152\"   \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>Portes\u2019un hesaplamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gecikme s\u00fcresi boyunca tasarruf:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Her bir bak\u0131m \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k <strong>2.000 sterlin<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Her bir ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 birey i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k <strong>4.000 sterlin<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>olacak. Bu veriler, toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k <strong>600 milyon sterlinlik<\/strong> bir tasarrufa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<h4>G\u00f6\u00e7menler ilk y\u0131llarda net katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor<\/h4>\n<p>G\u00f6\u00e7 Dan\u0131\u015fma Komitesi verileri, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin \u00fclkeye geldikten sonraki <strong>ilk 20 y\u0131l boyunca kamu maliyesine net katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> g\u00f6steriyor. Negatif mali etkinin ise genellikle emeklilik ve sosyal bak\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ileri ya\u015flarda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca veriler, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin \u00f6dedi\u011fi vergilerin, ald\u0131klar\u0131 sosyal yard\u0131mlardan daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n<h4>Ekonomik riskler ve ele\u015ftiriler<\/h4>\n<p>Portes, tasarruflar\u0131n g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin \u00fclkeden ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 veya y\u00fcksek gelirli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye gelmekten vazge\u00e7mesi gibi fakt\u00f6rlerle dengelenebilece\u011fini belirtti. Uzmanlara g\u00f6re daha uzun bekleme s\u00fcreleri, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fccretli i\u015flerde kalmas\u0131na neden olarak vergi gelirlerini de azaltabilir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019ne yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu <strong>IPPR<\/strong>, 10 milyar sterlinlik tasarruf iddias\u0131n\u0131n ancak g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkeyi terk etmesi halinde m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fini savundu. Bu durumun ise kamu maliyesi \u00fczerinde ek maliyetler yaratabilece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n<h4>Siyasi tart\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/h4>\n<p>Baz\u0131 \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partili milletvekilleri, \u00f6zellikle halihaz\u0131rda \u00fclkede bulunan g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin d\u00fczenlemeden muaf tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 talep ediyor. <strong>Stella Creasy<\/strong>, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin 10 milyar sterlinlik tasarruf iddias\u0131n\u0131 \u201cs\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez\u201d olarak nitelendirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Liberal Demokratlar ise h\u00fck\u00fcmetin hesaplamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u201cmali bir hayal\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n<h4>H\u00fck\u00fcmetten a\u00e7\u0131klama<\/h4>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7i\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, s\u00f6z konusu 10 milyar sterlinlik rakam\u0131n do\u011frudan tasarruf de\u011fil, ilgili g\u00f6\u00e7men grubunun <strong>ya\u015fam boyu maliyet tahmini<\/strong> oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Bakanl\u0131k, g\u00f6\u00e7 sisteminde d\u00fczenleme yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n gerekli oldu\u011funu savundu.<\/p>\n<p>Tart\u0131\u015fmalar s\u00fcrerken, d\u00fczenlemenin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede parlamentoda oylamaya sunulmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedi\u011fi, ancak h\u00fck\u00fcmetin isti\u015fare s\u00fcrecini devam ettirdi\u011fi bildiriliyor.<\/p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;<\/b>Yeni ele\u015ftiriler g\u00fcndemde<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6\u00e7 hukuku uzman\u0131 <strong>Vanessa Ganguin<\/strong>, tart\u0131\u015fmalara sert ele\u015ftirilerle kat\u0131ld\u0131. Ganguin, baz\u0131 siyasi s\u00f6ylem ve kampanyalar\u0131n <strong>\u0131rk\u00e7\u0131 ve yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 bir dil<\/strong> i\u00e7erdi\u011fini savunarak, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin ekonomik y\u00fck olarak g\u00f6sterilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ganguin\u2019in de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin yerle\u015fim s\u00fcrecini zorla\u015ft\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik politikalar\u0131n ekonomik faydas\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, <strong>\u00fclkenin cazibesini azaltarak uzun vadede daha b\u00fcy\u00fck maliyetlere yol a\u00e7ma riski<\/strong> bulunuyor. Ayr\u0131ca, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn kamu maliyesine katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten analizlere at\u0131f yaparak, bu t\u00fcr politikalar\u0131n toplumda kutupla\u015fmay\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>Tart\u0131\u015fmalar s\u00fcrerken, d\u00fczenlemenin parlamentoda oylamaya sunulmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedi\u011fi, ancak h\u00fck\u00fcmetin isti\u015fare s\u00fcrecini devam ettirdi\u011fi bildiriliyor.<\/p>\n<h4>Ganguin\u2019den sert tepki<\/h4>\n<p>G\u00f6\u00e7 hukuku uzman\u0131 <strong>Vanessa Ganguin<\/strong>, Linkedin hesab\u0131ndan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada g\u00f6\u00e7men politikalar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen tart\u0131\u015fmalara sert ifadelerle tepki g\u00f6sterdi. Ganguin, baz\u0131 siyasi s\u00f6ylem ve kampanyalar\u0131n <strong>\u201c\u0131rk\u00e7\u0131, yabanc\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 ve \u0130slamofobik\u201d<\/strong> oldu\u011funu savundu.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zellikle Reform UK \u00e7evresinden gelen s\u00f6ylemleri hedef alan Ganguin, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin tek tip ve olumsuz bir profil \u00fczerinden sunulmas\u0131n\u0131n <strong>yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 ve tehlikeli<\/strong> oldu\u011funu belirtti. Brexit sonras\u0131 \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye gelen g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin yaln\u0131zca belirli etnik gruplardan ibaretmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6sterildi\u011fini ifade eden Ganguin, bunun ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ganguin, bu s\u00f6ylemlerde <strong data-start=\"740\" data-end=\"810\">Ukrayna ve Hong Kong\u2019dan gelen g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin tamamen yok say\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na<\/strong> dikkat \u00e7ekerek, \u201cg\u00f6\u00e7men\u201d profilinin bilin\u00e7li \u015fekilde \u00e7arp\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n toplumda yanl\u0131\u015f alg\u0131lar olu\u015fturdu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>Ganguin, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin ekonomik y\u00fck olarak sunulmas\u0131na da kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karak, bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n <strong>verilerle desteklenmedi\u011fini<\/strong> dile getirdi. Aksi halde, \u00fclkede ya\u015fayan ve topluma katk\u0131 sa\u011flayan y\u00fcz binlerce insan\u0131n <strong>haks\u0131z \u015fekilde damgalanaca\u011f\u0131<\/strong> uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"briti-2260103902\" class=\"briti-icerikten-sonra_2\" style=\"margin-top: 25px;margin-bottom: 25px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wa.me\/message\/NDZLLIOQT4H3O1\" aria-label=\"bytv reklam banner\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/bytv-reklam-banner.jpg\" alt=\"\"  width=\"2376\" height=\"1008\"   \/><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u0130\u00e7i\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Shabana Mahmood taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6nerilen g\u00f6\u00e7menlik d\u00fczenlemelerinin kamu maliyesine sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 tasarrufun, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 10 milyar sterlinin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. The Guardian\u2019\u0131n haberine g\u00f6re, h\u00fck\u00fcmet verilerine dayanan analiz, tasarrufun yakla\u015f\u0131k 600 milyon sterlin seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Plan kapsam\u0131nda, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin s\u00fcresiz oturum (settled status) hakk\u0131 elde etme s\u00fcresinin 5 y\u0131ldan 10 y\u0131la \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin kamu hizmetleri \u00fczerindeki y\u00fck\u00fc azaltaca\u011f\u0131 savunuluyordu. Veriler iddialar\u0131 desteklemiyor King\u2019s College London\u2019dan ekonomi profes\u00f6r\u00fc Jonathan Portes taraf\u0131ndan bilgi edinme ba\u015fvurusu ile elde edilen verilere g\u00f6re, s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin mali etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak. Analiz, g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin sosyal yard\u0131mlara eri\u015fiminin geciktirilmesinin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":34437,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5269],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-birlesik-krallik"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38620"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38620\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38622,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38620\/revisions\/38622"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34437"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}