{"id":31043,"date":"2025-05-01T16:54:35","date_gmt":"2025-05-01T15:54:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/?p=31043"},"modified":"2025-05-01T17:00:11","modified_gmt":"2025-05-01T16:00:11","slug":"dunyaca-unlu-afet-uzmani-prof-david-alexander-marmarada-buyuk-deprem-bekleniyor-spontane-gonulluluk-donemi-kapandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/dunyaca-unlu-afet-uzmani-prof-david-alexander-marmarada-buyuk-deprem-bekleniyor-spontane-gonulluluk-donemi-kapandi\/","title":{"rendered":"Prof. David Alexander: \u201cMarmara\u2019da B\u00fcy\u00fck Deprem Bekleniyor, Spontane G\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fcl\u00fck D\u00f6nemi Kapand\u0131\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de her deprem sonras\u0131 halk\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc kula\u011f\u0131 yer bilimcilerde oluyor. Uzmanlar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yaln\u0131zca bilimsel birer de\u011ferlendirme de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda milyonlarca insan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck kararlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen rehber niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. 23 Nisan\u2019da Silivri a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda meydana gelen 6.2 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki depremin ard\u0131ndan da benzer bir durum ya\u015fand\u0131; kamuoyu \u201cbu bir \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem mi?\u201d, \u201cdaha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sars\u0131nt\u0131 gelir mi?\u201d gibi sorulara yan\u0131t ararken, uzmanlar aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir tablo olu\u015ftu. Biz de BYTV olarak, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019tan farkl\u0131 bir perspektif sunmak \u00fczere University College London\u2019da (UCL) Acil Durum Planlama ve Y\u00f6netimi Profes\u00f6r\u00fc olarak g\u00f6rev yapan d\u00fcnyaca \u00fcnl\u00fc afet y\u00f6netimi uzman\u0131 Prof. David Alexander\u2019\u0131n<\/strong> kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ald\u0131k.<\/p>\n

Afet y\u00f6netimi alan\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen uzmanlar\u0131ndan biri olarak kabul edilen Prof. David Alexander<\/strong>, \u0130stanbul\u2019un deprem riski ve olas\u0131 senaryolar hakk\u0131nda BYTV\u2019nin sorular\u0131n\u0131 yan\u0131tlad\u0131. University College London\u2019da (UCL) Acil Durum Planlama ve Y\u00f6netimi Profes\u00f6r\u00fc olarak g\u00f6rev yapan Alexander, hem akademik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 hem de afet sonras\u0131 planlama konusundaki saha deneyimiyle uluslararas\u0131 alanda sayg\u0131n bir otorite kabul ediliyor. ABD, \u0130talya ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta afetlerle ilgili \u00e7ok say\u0131da yap\u0131sal program\u0131n olu\u015fumunda rol alan Alexander\u2019\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmeleri, \u00f6zellikle Marmara B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck depreme y\u00f6nelik haz\u0131rl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7leri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

 Prof. David Alexander, Kuzey Anadolu Fay Sistemi\u2019ne ili\u015fkin mevcut bilgiler do\u011frultusunda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki be\u015f y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u015fiddeti en az 7 olan bir depremin meydana gelmesinin \u201colduk\u00e7a muhtemel\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ancak kendisinin bir sismolog olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yaln\u0131zca mevcut sismolojik bilgilere dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n
\"\"

Hatay Depremi<\/p><\/div>\n

“Depremler Stres Transferine Yol A\u00e7ar”<\/strong><\/h4>\n

BYTV\u2019den Ergin Balabeyo\u011flu\u2019nun sorular\u0131n\u0131 yan\u0131tlayan Prof.  Alexander, fay hatlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 sonucu olu\u015fan gerilimin, ayn\u0131 fay sistemi \u00fczerindeki di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelere aktar\u0131labilece\u011fini ve bunun yeni k\u0131r\u0131lmalara neden olabilece\u011fini belirtti. Bu ba\u011flamda, son depremin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir olay olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n

\u0130stanbul\u2019a Yak\u0131n Bir Merkez \u00dcss\u00fc \u0130htimali Var<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Prof. Alexander, Marmara Havzas\u0131’n\u0131n sismik a\u00e7\u0131dan olduk\u00e7a istikrars\u0131z oldu\u011funu, bu nedenle \u0130stanbul\u2019un ya do\u011frudan \u015fehir merkezinde ya da \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir noktada meydana gelebilecek bir depremden etkilenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu belirtti. \u201cB\u00f6yle bir depremin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc en az 7 olabilir ve bu da yap\u0131 kalitesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak orta ya da y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Etkili M\u00fcdahale \u0130\u00e7in Senaryo Setleri Gerekli<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Prof.  David Alexander, kentsel alanlarda meydana gelen depremler i\u00e7in etkili bir acil m\u00fcdahale plan\u0131 olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131n temel \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 da s\u0131ralad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, g\u00fcn\u00fcn saatine g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fen insan yo\u011funluklar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131narak senaryo setleri haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131; hangi yap\u0131 sto\u011funun en k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu \u00f6nceden belirlenmeli. \u201cEvler mi, ofisler mi, k\u00f6pr\u00fcler, yollar m\u0131 daha riskli? Bunlar\u0131n hepsi analiz edilmeli\u201d  dedi.<\/p>\n

“Yabanc\u0131 Ekipler Ge\u00e7 Ula\u015f\u0131yor, Alt\u0131n Saatler 12\u2019yi Ge\u00e7mez”<\/strong><\/h4>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck bir deprem durumunda sadece \u0130stanbul\u2019daki de\u011fil, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin farkl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinden ve hatta yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynaklara ihtiya\u00e7 duyulabilece\u011fini belirten Alexander, \u201cYabanc\u0131 arama kurtarma ekiplerinin olay yerine ula\u015fmas\u0131 genellikle 36 saati buluyor. Oysa enkaz alt\u0131nda kalan ki\u015filerin kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in alt\u0131n saatler ilk 12 saattir\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ulusal, B\u00f6lgesel ve Yerel Koordinasyon Zorunlu<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Etkili bir m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in \u201cortak operasyon resmi\u201d (common operating picture) kavram\u0131na dikkat \u00e7eken Alexander, kriz ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bilgi eksikli\u011finin oldu\u011funu, sahadan gelen verilerin zamanla artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu bilgilerin yorumlan\u0131p t\u00fcm ilgili birimlerle payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Alexander\u2019a g\u00f6re kaynaklar\u0131n en verimli \u015fekilde y\u00f6nlendirilmesi bu yolla sa\u011flanabilir.<\/p>\n

Tipik bir arama kurtarma ekibinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 50-60 ki\u015fiden olu\u015ftu\u011funu, doktor, m\u00fchendis, operat\u00f6r ve risk uzmanlar\u0131ndan meydana geldi\u011fini, yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt ton ekipman ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirten Alexander, bu ekipmanlar\u0131n do\u011fru yerlere ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n da kritik oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. \u201c\u00d6ncelik, hayatta olanlar\u0131n kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. Enkaz alt\u0131ndaki bir ki\u015fi iki haftaya kadar ya\u015fayabilir; ancak be\u015finci g\u00fcnden sonra canl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma oran\u0131 dramatik bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fer\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

\u201cTatbikatlar ve G\u00fcncel Planlar Hayati\u201d<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Koordinasyon ve ileti\u015fim konusundaki bir soruya yan\u0131t veren Alexander, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu konuda son 15-20 y\u0131lda \u00f6nemli ilerleme kaydetti\u011fini belirtti. Ancak bu sistemlerin ger\u00e7ek kapasitesinin ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck felaketlerle s\u0131nanabilece\u011fini ifade etti. \u201cBu nedenle bar\u0131\u015f zaman\u0131nda tatbikat yap\u0131lmal\u0131. Ulusal, b\u00f6lgesel ve yerel planlar\u0131n entegre olmas\u0131 ve herkesin rol\u00fcn\u00fc bilmesi gerekir\u201d<\/strong> dedi.<\/p>\n

Krizde Koordinasyonun Anahtar\u0131: E\u011fitimli G\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fcler ve G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Yerel Yap\u0131lar<\/strong><\/h5>\n
 \u201cOrganize G\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fcl\u00fck Esast\u0131r\u201d<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Spontane g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn art\u0131k yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Alexander, \u201cE\u011fitimsiz g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fcler kaynak t\u00fcketir. Ancak m\u00fchendis, doktor, mimar gibi uzman ki\u015filer tan\u0131ml\u0131 g\u00f6revlerle sisteme entegre edilirse etkili sonu\u00e7 al\u0131nabilir\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc kurulu\u015flar\u0131 e\u011fitip sisteme dahil etmesini \u201cdo\u011fru bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u201d olarak niteledi.<\/p>\n

\"\"

2022’de T\u00fcm T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Deprem An\u0131, \u00c7\u00f6k-Kapan-Tutun Tatbikat\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131<\/p><\/div>\n

Sivil Koruma: \u201cBiz Hepimiziz\u201d<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Toplum kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemine de de\u011finen Prof. Alexander, sivil koruma sisteminin sadece kurumlar\u0131n de\u011fil, t\u00fcm toplumun sorumlulu\u011funda oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Kendi ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kasabada, 1639\u2019dan beri aktif olan g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc ambulans servisinin toplumla otoriteler aras\u0131nda k\u00f6pr\u00fc i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca yerel y\u00f6neticilerin (\u00f6rne\u011fin belediye ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n) do\u011frudan sivil korumadan sorumlu tutulmas\u0131n\u0131n bu k\u00f6pr\u00fcy\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n

Depreme Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Bina \u0130n\u015fas\u0131  <\/strong><\/h4>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yap\u0131 sto\u011funun genel kalitesinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu ve bu durumun can kay\u0131plar\u0131na neden olabilece\u011fini belirten Alexander, 2018\u2019de g\u00fcncellenen T\u00fcrkiye Deprem Y\u00f6netmeli\u011fi\u2019nin teknik olarak son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu ifade etti. Ancak yasalara uygun in\u015fa oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n

Depreme dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir bina in\u015fa etmenin maliyeti sadece %10 art\u0131\u015f getirdi\u011fini, ancak bu oran\u0131n baz\u0131 m\u00fcteahhitler taraf\u0131ndan tasarruf amac\u0131yla ihmal edildi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n

Alexander, d\u00fcnya genelinde deprem felaketlerinin temel nedeninin depremler de\u011fil, yolsuzluk oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti. \u201cBinalar neden \u00e7\u00f6ker? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00f6t\u00fc in\u015fa edilmi\u015ftir. Neden k\u00f6t\u00fc in\u015fa edilmi\u015ftir? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc standartlara uyulmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ve denetim yap\u0131lmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Yap\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmesinin as\u0131l nedeninin depremler de\u011fil, yolsuzluk ve denetimsizlik oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyen Alexander, benzer durumlar\u0131n \u0130talya, Meksika ve G\u00fcney Kore gibi \u00fclkelerde de ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

David Alexander kimdir?<\/h4>\n

Prof. David Alexander, University College London (UCL) b\u00fcnyesinde Afet Planlama ve Y\u00f6netimi Profes\u00f6r\u00fc olarak g\u00f6rev yapmaktad\u0131r. Co\u011frafya lisans\u0131n\u0131 London School of Economics\u2019te tamamlayan Alexander, doktoras\u0131n\u0131 Akdeniz jeomorfolojisi \u00fczerine yine UCL\u2019de yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 1982\u20132002 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ABD\u2019deki Massachusetts \u00dcniversitesi Amherst kamp\u00fcs\u00fcnde do\u011fal afetler, jeomorfoloji ve fiziksel co\u011frafya alanlar\u0131nda dersler vermi\u015ftir. 2003\u20132007 d\u00f6neminde \u0130talya Lombardiya B\u00f6lgesel H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin \u0130leri Sivil Koruma Okulu\u2019nun bilimsel direkt\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcstlenmi\u015f, Floransa \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nde g\u00f6rev yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2005\u20132011 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n ilk Sivil Koruma y\u00fcksek lisans program\u0131n\u0131n kurulu\u015funa \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Elsevier yay\u0131nevinin International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction<\/em> adl\u0131 akademik dergisinin kurucu ve ba\u015f edit\u00f6r\u00fc olan Alexander, afet risk y\u00f6netimi alan\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f \u00e7ok say\u0131da bilimsel yay\u0131na imza atm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda Uluslararas\u0131 Entegre Afet Risk Y\u00f6netimi Derne\u011fi (IDRiM) taraf\u0131ndan \u201c\u00dcst\u00fcn Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u00d6d\u00fcl\u00fc\u201dne lay\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Ayr\u0131ca Davos K\u00fcresel Risk Forumu\u2019nda ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u00fcyesi olarak g\u00f6rev almakta ve Avrupa\u2019daki \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fcniversitelerde misafir profes\u00f6rl\u00fck yapmaktad\u0131r. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de her deprem sonras\u0131 halk\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc kula\u011f\u0131 yer bilimcilerde oluyor. Uzmanlar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yaln\u0131zca bilimsel birer de\u011ferlendirme de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda milyonlarca insan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck kararlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen rehber niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. 23 Nisan\u2019da Silivri a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda meydana gelen 6.2 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki depremin ard\u0131ndan da benzer bir durum ya\u015fand\u0131; kamuoyu \u201cbu bir \u00f6nc\u00fc deprem mi?\u201d, \u201cdaha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sars\u0131nt\u0131 gelir mi?\u201d gibi sorulara yan\u0131t ararken, uzmanlar aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir tablo olu\u015ftu. Biz de BYTV olarak, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019tan farkl\u0131 bir perspektif sunmak \u00fczere University College London\u2019da (UCL) Acil Durum Planlama ve Y\u00f6netimi Profes\u00f6r\u00fc olarak g\u00f6rev yapan d\u00fcnyaca \u00fcnl\u00fc afet y\u00f6netimi uzman\u0131 Prof. David Alexander\u2019\u0131n kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31046,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5269],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-birlesik-krallik"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31043","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31043"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31043\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31043"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31043"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/by-tv.co.uk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31043"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}